Name: MANORANJAN PAL
Designation: Professor, Economic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute
Qualification: Ph. D.
Date of Birth: 4 August, 1953
Experience in Academic-Administration:
Worked as Member Secretary, Board of Directors, International Statistical Education Centre (ISEC), Kolkata, for more than 10 years starting from February 1999. Member Secretary is the overall in-charge of the Centre. The main purpose of the Centre is to provide courses in theoretical and applied statistics at various levels to selected participants from the countries of the Middle East, South and South-East Asia, the Far East, and the Commonwealth Countries of Africa. Candidates usually avail themselves of fellowships awarded by the United Nations and other international organizations like Asian Development Bank, the Commonwealth Fund for Technical Co-operation, as also by the Government of India. The main duty of Member Secretary is the overall supervision of the work of Regular and Special courses, correspondences with the relevant organizations etc. In 2000 we celebrated golden jubilee of ISEC by organizing two international level conferences – one in Delhi and the other in Kolkata.
Currently I am performing the duty as Professor-in-charge, Social Sciences Division.
a. Teaching Assignments in graduate and post graduate courses in Indian Statistical Institute
b. Research Work on (a) Measurement of poverty, inequality and segregation, (b) Applied Econometrics, (c) Measurement of status of health and nutrition, (d) Gender bias and empowerment of women, etc.
Scientific Assignments Academic Visit Abroad:
The Marquis Who’s Who Publications Board certifies that Professor Manoranjan Pal is a subject of biographical record in Who’s Who in the World 2013 Pearl Anniversary Edition, inclusion in which is limited to those individuals who have demonstrated outstanding achievement in their own fields of endeavor and who have, thereby, contributed significantly to the betterment of contemporary society.
Books and Conference Proceedings Published:
Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoS&PI) requested Indian Statistical Institute to take up a research project on development of a statistical methodology towards measurement of poverty (vide letter no. D.O.NO.M-12012/38/2005-SSD, dated 19th October, 2005, from Dr. R.C. Panda, Additional Secretary, Mos&PI, Government of India, addressed to the Director, Indian Statistical Institute). This is in view of the fact that the norm of 2400 Kcal for rural India and 2100 Kcal for urban India for calculation of poverty line was prescribed sometime in the beginning of seventies. It is desirable to know whether these norms still hold good as of now as the consumption pattern as well as the quantum of daily energy requirement might have undergone changes during the last 35 years. Accordingly the director of Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) entrusted the charge to Professor Manoranjan Pal, who prepared a project proposal and getting approval from the ministry started the project work in April 2006.
Below we give some of the findings and recommendations of the project:
The entire study is based only on NSS data as supplied by the Ministry. NSS data may sometimes lead to erratic results. Thus NSS data call for rigorous scrutiny before being applied in a fruitful manner. For example, we had to delete all the households with DPCI ≤ 100 Kcal or ≥ 10000 Kcal to carry out regression analysis of DPCI on MPCE with meaningful and stable result.
We have used the calorie norms supplied by the Task Force, Expert Group, ICMR and FAO. It suffices to compare only ICMR and FAO estimates.
The calorie poverty rates by direct method are always higher than the fixed calorie line method. The variation of calorie consumption much below the calorie line will not affect the calorie poverty rate. So is the variation of calorie consumption much above the calorie line. Only marginal households, i.e., the households with actual calorie consumption close to the calorie line, will affect the calorie poverty rate. The number of marginal households is more in the direct methods then in the fixed calorie line methods. Thus the poverty rate by the direct method is more sensitive to changes in the consumption. Moreover, it is less likely for the marginal households to increase the consumption, whereas those who are supposed to lie above the calorie line may have reasons to consume less. The net effect is the increase of calorie poverty rate by the direct method compared to the fixed calorie line method. The calorie line of the household may be very much different from the fixed calorie line because the age-sex-activity status of the household may be much different from the average age-sex-activity pattern of all the households. The direct method thus seems to be superior to the fixed calorie line method in this respect. Observe that calculation of calorie poverty rates by direct method does not need any weighing diagram of the population. This is automatically taken care of by the multiplier of each member (may be termed as individual multiplier), which is the product of the household multiplier and the household size.
Urban poverties are found to be more than corresponding rural poverties when activity levels of adults are not considered. This does not seem to be probable. There are mainly two reasons for differences in the poverty rates between rural and urban sectors. The first is the differences of consumptions due to the differences of incomes. The MPCE of urban households is certainly more than the MPCE of rural households and it is expected that the households with more income will consume more food. But our findings nullify it. The second reason is that the differences of consumptions are due to differences in the activity status. Our findings support it.
Calorie poverty rates show an increasing trend whichever method is used except for urban sector during 50th and 55th rounds of NSS. One of the reasons is due to the change in the activity status over time, which is not considered at all. The correspondence between National Classification of Occupation made in 1968 (NCO-1968) and the activity status has undergone a sea change. The life styles have changed very much due to the introduction of many work and time saving devices. Many new commodities have come into the market. The tests and preferences on the commodities by the people have changed. The workers who were designated as hard workers have possibly ceased to be so. So are the moderate workers. And this is reflected in the trend of Calorie Poverty Rates. We also apprehend that many of the members, who were designated as sedentary workers by NCO-1968, are now leading a sub-sedentary life.
We have found the Poverty Rates using both linear and quadratic methods of regression of DPCI on MPCE for each class interval. The linear and quadratic methods almost give same result.
The Poverty Rates found by the Fixed Poverty Line Method using linear interpolation are higher than the Calorie Poverty Rates found by Calorie Line Methods for rural India. Almost the opposite is the case for urban India. This anyway is not a solace to us given the fact that all the rates are too high to be acceptable.
Except for higher income groups, the mean calorie consumption of female members relative to that of male members is 0.96 regardless whether the household is from a rural sector or from an urban sector.
Two entirely new methods have been proposed in this report – Calorie Decomposition Method and the Error Distribution Method. Poverty Rates found by both the methods are higher than expected. Some modifications of the error decomposition method have also been proposed. The modifications lead to better result in the sense that the poverty rates are considerably lower than the other methods using calorie intakes. It may be possible by this method to compensate for the decreasing trends in the calorie consumption by choosing the appropriate cut off points. The logic behind choosing a cut-off point is simple. Suppose more than 50 percent of population, say, with a given per capita income can consume food having calorie intake more than the calorie norm then the rest of the households with the same per capita income should be able to consume food at the same level as this group. By a similar logic, for other lower MPCE intervals, a portion of households taken as poor should be non-poor. But this portion should be estimated by assuming a suitable distribution. The cut-off point need not be based on 50:50 criteria. It may be, for example, based on 40:60 or 60:40 criteria, say.
We have regrouped the NCO-1968 codes according to the activity status and calculated the poverty rates by direct method. It improved the estimates to some extent. The noteworthy feature of this regrouping is that the rural and urban poverties become almost equal. We have also seen whether the there is a variation of calorie intakes between rural and urban sectors separately for each activity status. It is seen that less calorie intake of urban people is not due to the variation of number of members in the different activity status and further it proves that the calorie intake of urban people is about 0.87 times the calorie intake of rural people given the same expenditure group regardless the activity status.
Apart from some random fluctuations there is an increasing trend of prices over total per capita expenditure in both rural and urban areas. Ignoring the bottom and top few expenditure classes which show erratic behaviour, the rural urban ratio of prices have been found to be around 0.94 when median is taken. As total per capita expenditure increases people move to higher quality goods and thus price increases for both rural and urban sectors. Rural prices compared to urban prices do not have any trend. Though the price ratios remain more or less same over expenditure groups, but these values vary over the commodity groups. The urban prices compared to rural prices are high in cereals, pulses, milk and milk products, and spices. The urban prices are low for dry fruits and beverages. These are comparatively low calorie goods. We have also found the ratios of prices of the 61st round to the prices of 55th round data of NSSO by expenditure and item wise groups. There is no trend of these price ratios over the expenditure groups. But there are variations in the increases of the prices if seen for the item groups. The average of the price ratios are approximately 1.19 and 1.17 for rural and urban sectors respectively, whereas the medians of these ratios are 1.17 and 1.14 respectively for rural and urban sectors. The price ratios NSS 61st round compared to NSS 55th round is very high for edible oil and sugar and sugar products. These are the high calorie items. Thus these price ratios may explain to some extent why the calorie consumptions are decreasing over time and also why calorie consumption of urban people is lower than the calorie consumption of rural people.
Most of the south Indian states show very high values of the poverty rates. Also these values are relatively higher than those states known to be the poorest states in India. For example Bihar has the rural poverty rate as 0.55, whereas the states like Karnataka and Tamilnadu have poverty rates higher than 0.80.
The West Bengal Financial Corporation (WBFC) approached the Indian Statistical Institute to undertake a study to find (i) the present state of units in the Steel Sector financed by the Corporation, (ii) the prospect of further exposure by the Corporation in the Steel Sector; and (iii) the market prospects for such products in the region. Professor Ajay Kumar Adhikari and Dr. Manoranjan Pal were given the task in January2003.
The Project Report has been submitted in September 2003. The salient features of the Project are as follows:
The present state of units in the Steel Sector financed by the West Bengal Finance Corporation can only be assessed by taking relevant information from the concerned units. The study team visited Durgapur and gathered valuable information on the current situation of these plants in and around Durgapur. It should be mentioned here that a good number of plants financed by WBFC is situated in Durgapur and surrounding places. Section 3 of this report gives a detailed description on the present situation and future prospects of these plants. Easy availability of inputs including land, low transport cost and high demand for the output produced are the main features observed during the visit. The data collected through Questionnaire reveal more precise information. The firms are making substantial profit and there is no reason why the situation should not persist. However, so far as Durgapur area is concerned, the situation is almost approaching the saturation point. There are four industrial areas under Asansol Durgapur Development Authority. But most of the plots have already been distributed.
Though there is easy availability of inputs, the costs of inputs may be different for different firms. As for example, there are differences in the rates of electricity consumption. Durgapur Project Limited (DPL) has the lowest rate. The demand for DPL electricity is thus very high. West Bengal State Electricity Board (WBSEB) has the highest rate. Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) comes in the middle. There is also some concern over future power position. The profit seems to be the only motive for the industrialists. They will not hesitate to leave the place when slump period comes. It is unlikely that they will wait for the next boom period to come.
The performance of WBFC, so far as repayments of loans are concerned is more or less satisfactory, at least for the steel sector. WBFC takes enough precaution before sanctioning loans. Almost all the firms are in a financially strong position and are not only able to repay loans but also are able to make enough profits after repayments.
The growth pattern of Sponge Iron and Ferro-Alloys production in West Bengal is very bright at least by the secondary producers (See section 4). The production of Finished Steel in West Bengal has also increased. Because of the rising demand of steel, a large number of steel manufacturing units are being set up in the State.
The Indian and Global scenario also seems to be favourable for steel industry (Sec. 5). Steel industry in India has all along in the long run maintained a steady growth despite price fluctuations. Production as well as consumption and export have increased. The consumption is expected to increase further in near future. However the steel plants in WB/India are to be modernized to maintain the existing growth.
Government of India is taking measures against Anti Dumping Duty imposed by other countries. To check unbridled cheap imports of steel, Government of India has fixed floor prices of 7 items of finished steel. China is one of the world’s largest importers of steel and the Chinese demand is shooting up.
To summarize, the prospect of the units in the Steel Sector is very bright in near future. Long term prediction may not be possible due to uncertainty in the market conditions. The steel sector should thus be given short term loan so that it is repayed within 5 years.
Thus our recommendations for the three points asked may be summarized as follows.
(i) The present position of the units in the steel sector, financed by WBFC, looks sound and it is possible that some of the units may repay the loan amount even before the stipulated time-period;
(ii) ‘Further exposure to the steel sector by WBFC’ looks promising in comparison to units in other sectors. However, close monitoring of performance of units should continue as is being done now; and
(iii) The prospect of the units in the steel sector of this region looks bright at least for the next few years.
There are many models of buying behaviour which have been proposed in the literature on marketing science. Among these the Ehrenberg Bayesian model seems to have given good results in many cases. The area of interest which is of importance to the HLL is to use the Ehrenberg model for consumer panel data in the Indian context. This model describes successfully and parsimoniously many different aspects of buying behaviour in approximately stationary non-segmented markets. However the Ehrenbarg model (vide "The Dirichlet: A Comprehensive Model of Buying Behaviour" G. J. Goodhardt, A. S. C. Ehrenberg and C Chatfield, JRSSA, Vol.147, 5, 1984) makes use of cross-sectional rather than panel data. We also do not know if the model explains Indian buying behaviour well. One would like to know first how the model describes cross-sectional data in the Indian situations. In fact, it has been demonstrated that the assumption of negative Binomial distribution may not be appropriate for Indian data. It is necessary to understand what should be the alternative form of distribution and how can that be utilized for predicting stable brand share.
We first examined the appropriateness of the different assumptions of the Ehrenberg model for a given product in the Indian situation. Then we fitted the model. The fitting of the model and judging the suitability of different assumptions are, however, inter linked.
In recent years there has been a deep concern over the persistent high rates of maternal mortality in under-developed and developed countries. Puerperal irregularity is one of the leading causes of death among women in their reproductive years.
Reliable and comprehensive data on maternal mortality are scanty. The data from hospital records are not sufficient to yield accurate estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) in the population. As an event MM is relatively infrequent and it is difficult to ascertain its frequency from enquiry. So samples of large sizes are needed to capture enough cases of MM to be able to estimate the corresponding rates in an effective way. Such an exercise naturally entails prohibitive costs.
A sample survey was conducted in rural areas of the district of North 24 Parganas to estimate infant and maternal mortality rates and to identify some of the determinants causing such mortality incidences. Since the problem of estimation of these rates, especially the MMR falls under the area of small area of estimation, we had to adopt indirect methods like network and sisterhood approaches besides the direct method of estimation. Some of our results on the estimation of MM have been found to be somewhat higher than those reported in other studies. The infant and maternal mortality estimates of rates or ratios were obtained separately for each (i) type of health centres located in the village (viz. 'BPHC', 'PHC', 'Subcentre' and 'Other'-villages); (ii) stratum of the villages (viz., accessible (A) and difficult-to-access (D) areas). Determinants of infant and maternal mortality were also investigated taking socio-economic attributes and health facilities into consideration. We have also considered maternal and child health parameters, especially, antenatal and postnatal care, vaccination, immunization of children etc., to investigate the risk factors of infant and maternal mortality rates in the rural sector of the district. We hope that the results of the study (at the district level) will help the Government and other organizations (1) to obtain regional level estimates and suitable survey procedures and (2) to reduce infant and maternal deaths by the adoption of mother-child-health programmes in the risk-prone areas in future.
These Projects were assigned by the Department of Mass Education and Extension, Government of West Bengal, to ISI in 1992. In these projects we not only assessed the performance of learners and other participants in TLC, but also compared differences in the awareness/attitudes towards health, food habit, family welfare etc. of learners and of those who still remained illiterate. A systematic probing was made to identify the tentative future programme in which the neo-literates would be interested in the post literacy phase. A multistage stratified random sampling design was adopted in both the districts. The reports were submitted to the Government of West Bengal during December 1993.
This project has been undertaken in response to the request from Government of West Bengal to evaluate the Mass Literacy Programme in North 24 Pgs. This programme is currently being undertaken in different districts of West Bengal. A report entitled "Internal Evaluation of Total Literacy Campaign in North 24 Parganas" has been submitted in July, 1992 (page 38, Jointly with seven other members).
This study was based on sample survey. Primary objective of this study was to estimate flow of tourists at different tourist cities over the seasons in a year and investigating the problems they face while visiting Orissa. Naturally the survey was spread throughout the year for some important tourist cities in Orissa.
Primary objective of this collaborative project was to build up a model for estimating "Discovery and Production Costs" of hydrocarbon for the purpose of making efficient plan for future exploration and exploitation. We have developed two models - An Econometric Model and A Stochastic Model - both enabling us to work out Marginal and Average Costs of discovery and production and to predict future expected discovery path and production pattern. The report entitled "Estimation of Discovery and Production Costs of Hydrocarbon With Some Applications to Indian Data" (266 pages, written jointly with five other faculty members) was submitted in May 1990. Two research papers (see sr. nos. 14 and 16 in the list of published papers) in this line have been published.
The subjects taught are Econometric Applications I and II, Econometric Methods, Economic and Official Statistics, Descriptive Statistics I and II etc. to the students of Master of Science in Quantitative Economics (MSQE), Bachelor of Statistics (B. Stat.), ISEC Regular Course, ISEC Special Course etc. for last 30 years.
Besides, special lectures were taken in Workshops, Summer Schools, Refresher Courses etc.
In doing so, class notes on Statistical Methods, Models with Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variables, Measures of Poverty, Measures of Inequality, Measures of Segregation etc. were prepared by me.
1. Title: “Demographic Transition and Inclusive Development”, Kolkata, 15-17 March, 2012.
It was held in Kolkata by IIPS in Collaboration with ISI, Kolkata, during 15-17 March, 2012. Professor Manoranjan Pal headed the local organizing team on behalf of Indian Statistical Institute.
In response to our call for papers, we received more than 450 abstracts out of which about 220 abstracts have been selected.
In the inaugural session, Professor Manoranjan Pal welcomed the delegates to ISI at Kolkata and the theme of the seminar was introduced by Professor R.B. Bhagat who highlighted that India has made a good progress in the demographic transition, but the process is uneven with persistence of very high infant, child and maternal mortality. While welcoming the delegates Professor F. Ram, Director, IIPS, Mumbai pointed out the importance of demographic and health indicators in the measurement of inclusive development. He argued for the need of the expansion and strengthening the discipline of population studies in the country and stressed the role and responsibility of IIPS in promoting the teaching and research in the field of population studies. The seminar was inaugurated by Professor Jayant K. Ghosh, Professor Emeritus, ISI, Kolkata and inaugural address was delivered by Professor T.K. Roy, former Director, IIPS, Mumbai. In the inaugural address, Prof Roy highlighted the issue of declining fertility and rising male to female ratio at birth in the country. The natural sex-ratio has crossed the mark of 106/100 at the country level and has reached as high as 115-120/100 in some of states. This is a matter of serious concern as declining fertility is continued to be associated with son preference and sex-selective abortions. Dr Aparajita Chattopadhyay proposed the vote of thanks in the inaugural session.
A record 171 papers were presented in two plenary sessions, two poster sessions and 24 technical sessions in the three days seminar. Everyday three parallel sessions were running with duration of one and half hours with tea and lunch break in between. A cultural programme of Bengali songs and folk dance was organized in the evening of 16th March, 2012. Majority of the participants were either young researchers or research scholars with delegates from the countries from USA, Philippines and Bangladesh also participated in this seminar. There were two plenary sessions exclusively devoted to inclusive policies and programmes.
The seminar was concluded with the valedictory address delivered Shri Dilip Ghosh, NRHM Mission Director, Department of Health, Govt of West Bengal. The valedictory session was presided over by Shri Sanjay Mitra, Principal Secretary, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of West Bengal. The vote of thanks was proposed by Dr. Rajiva Prasad, Associate Professor, IIPS, Mumbai.
2. Title: “Statistics, Economic Development and Public Administration”, New Delhi, 11-12 February 2011.
It was one of the two conferences celebrating Diamond Jubilee of International Statistical Education Centre (ISEC) held during 4 – 12 February, 2011 by ISEC and the Government of India. Professor Manoranjan Pal acted as Vice Chairman of the organizing team.
3. Title: “Statistics, Science and Human Development”, Kolkata, 4-5 February, 2011.
It was one of the two conferences celebrating Diamond Jubilee of International Statistical Education Centre (ISEC) held during 4 – 12 February, 2011 by ISEC and the Government of India. Professor Manoranjan Pal acted as Vice Chairman of the organizing team. As a part of the Diamond Jubilee celebration, ISEC also organized a session titled Building Sustainable Statistical Capacity: What has Worked, What has Not, and Why, in the 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians during 7 – 10 February, 2011, at New Delhi, India.
An edited book entitled “Statistics and Development Issues” has been published by Mittal Publication taking some of the important papers presented in the conference.
The Seminar was successfully organized during 1-2 February 2007 by the Social Sciences Division of the Indian Statistical Institute. Professor Manoranjan Pal headed the organizing team. The conference was a part of the Platinum Jubilee Celebration of the Indian Statistical Institute.
The Inauguration Ceremony was held at the Geology Auditorium in Kolkata on 1 February 2007. Professor J. K. Ghosh, Professor, Purdue University and Professor Emeritus, Indian Statistical Institute, presided over the meeting and delivered the welcome address. Professor Pronab Sen, Principal Advisor, Planning Commission (Now: Chief Statistician of India, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India) was the Chief Guest and gave a short illuminating speech. Prof. Ashish Bose, Honorary Professor, Institute of Economic Growth, delivered the Key Note address. He has delivered a timely and thought provoking address on “India’s unborn daughters: Victims of demographic terrorism”. Professors Pronab Sen and Ashish Bose were present on both the days of the Seminar and participated in the discussions and gave valuable suggestions.
The Inauguration Ceremony was followed by the seminar on “Gender Issues and Empowerment of Women”. There were sessions on Empowerment of Women-I, Gender Inequality and Poverty, Empowerment of Women-II, Gender and Education, Gender, Health and Nutrition, Crime and Violence Against Women & Panchayati Raj. There were about 40 contributory papers. Faculty, Scholars and researchers in this area from various Universities and Institutes in India and abroad participated in the Seminar. Besides, there were a few invited speakers like Professors Ranjan Ray, Suddhendu Biswas, Vani K. Barooah, Salil Basu, Ishita Mukhopadhyay, T. K. Roy, Santosh Mehrotra who are stalwarts in this area.
The last session consisted of a Panel discussion on ‘Female Feticides in India’. Professor Ashish Bose chaired the session. The discussants were Professors Pronab Sen, Faujdar Ram, Manabendra Nath Mandol and Suddhendu Biswas. The audience also actively participated in the discussion.
5. Title: “Policy Issues in Demography, Health & Education, and Economics”, 13-14 October, 2000.
It was a part of “The Golden Jubilee Celebrations of the International Statistical Education Centre (ISEC), Calcutta” held by the International Statistical Institute, the Indian Statistical Institute and the Government of India during 13 – 18 October, 2000. Professor Manoranjan Pal headed the organizing team.
There were three sessions: Policy Issues in Demography, Policy Issues in Health & Education and Policy Issues in Economics. A number of distinguished delegates – Professors A. Bose, K. Srinivasan, P. Visaria, P. Singh, B. Phillips, P. Holmes, K. S. Parikh, J. L. Bodin, D. Bond, L. Biggeri and D. Vere-Jones – presented papers of high standard. Professors J. L. Bodin, K. C. Seal and A. Sharma chaired the three sessions. Professors N. Bhattacharya, T. J. Rao and A. B. Raha acted as rapporteurs.
6. Title: “Contemporary Issues in Statistical Education”, 17-18 October, 2000.
It was a part of “The Golden Jubilee Celebrations of the International Statistical Education Centre (ISEC), Calcutta” held by the International Statistical Institute, the Indian Statistical Institute and the Government of India during 13 – 18 October, 2000. Professor Manoranjan Pal headed the organizing team.
Professor K. B. Sinha (Director, Indian Statistical Institute) inaugurated the Conference and delivered the Welcome Address. Professors J. L. Bodin (President, International Statistical Institute), R. Mukherjee (Chairman, Organizing Committee, Calcutta) and Dr. N. S. Sastry (D. G. & C. E. O., Ministry of Statistics & P. I., Government of India) addressed the gathering in the Inauguration Ceremony of this Conference. Dr. P. Bharati (Programme Coordinator, ISEC) offered the Vote of Thanks.
1. Poverty, Inequality and Growth
2. Nutrition and Growth
3. Empowerment of Women
4. Measures of Gender Segregation and Spatial Segregation
5. Errors in Variables Models
6. Error Component Models
7. Frontier Production/Cost Functions
8. Limited Dependent Variables Models
1. Refereeing work of many papers from different journals.
Guidance for Ph. D.:
“Assessment of Tea Quality: Some Statistical Analysis”: Dissertation submitted in 2000 by Sanjoy K. Paul to Tejpur University under the joint guidance of me and Dr. M. Borah of Tejpur University. The Ph. D. was awarded in 2002.
At present I am guiding two research scholars in Economic Research Unit. One of them is working on Poverty estimation and the other scholar is working on Gender Segregation.
Use of MS Office packages, SPLUS, SPSS etc. and knowledge of FORTRAN and BASIC languages.
Summary of my Achievements: